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Wednesday, January 29, 2025, marks the first day of the Chinese New Year based on the lunar calendar and will last until February 16, 2026. Also known as the Spring Festival, Chinese New Year is a time when many families in China gather to celebrate a fresh start for the year. This is also the Year of the Wood Snake, and many geomancers predict it will be a year of change, growth and opportunity.
According to the South China Morning Post, “The Snake represents wisdom, knowledge, intelligence, intuition and creativity. Snakes are also associated with good luck, prosperity, fertility and longevity…and are also revered for their ability to shed their skin and renew themselves, symbolizing transformation and rebirth.” Other feng shui experts caution the Year of the Snake can bring risks such as disasters, territorial disputes and financial difficulties.
So, what should global communicators expect as China enters the new year?
“Prepare for all eventualities,” cautioned Mitch Presnick, a visiting fellow at the Fairbank Center for Chinese Studies at Harvard University and Founder of Super 8 Hotels China, in a Page Conversation (Login required) in late 2024. “In the coming year China faces many domestic challenges, economic, social and more, and addressing these are first and foremost on the leadership agenda. There are also several headwinds on the foreign policy front it must deal with concurrently. The good news is that China is incredibly resilient and always manages through. What is certain is the Year of the Snake will be a fascinating year for anyone interested in the future of China’s relationship with the world,” continued Presnick.
Beyond China, the Year of the Snake begins at a fragile period for the state of the world. The World Economic Forum, in its run-up to its annual gathering in Davos, Switzerland this week, issued its yearly Global Risks Report. At Davos, Page and The Harris Poll released their annual study measuring public confidence in businesses' ability to address 16 key societal issues across 14 global markets. Both the WEF's Global Risks Report and the Page-Harris Confidence in Business Index, paint a picture of formidable challenges ahead. While the WEF report warns of "declining optimism" and "deepening geopolitical tensions," the Page-Harris Poll Confidence in Business Index reveals that only 26% of the global public is very confident in business's ability to address key societal challenges like those. The alignment in the findings from these two studies underscores the urgent need for business leaders to rebuild trust and demonstrate meaningful impact on the issues that matter most to their stakeholders.
Against this backdrop, here are a few headline predictions that can help the Page community prepare for what lies ahead in the Middle Kingdom.
On the heels of reports from the China National Bureau of Statistics that China hit its target of around 5% GDP growth for 2024, following a very strong fourth quarter, China’s leadership are expected to aim for a similar target for 2025. Outside analysts and economists, however, predict growth to slow somewhat to 4.5% this year and 4.2% in 2026. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects possible 4.6% growth given the several stimuli measures China has taken recently.
China remains the second largest economy in the world, after the United States, and since 2017 it is the world’s largest economy when measured by purchasing power parity (PPP). The IMF’s 4.6% growth forecast compares to global growth for 2025 projected at 3.3%, and these targets reflect impending U.S. tariff hikes, impact from geopolitical tensions, continued post-pandemic recovery challenges and domestic policy shifts.
To many China watchers, it is no surprise China places great emphasis on efforts to insulate itself from factors outside of China’s borders. Strategies such as “Indigenous Innovation,” a national effort aimed at developing China’s own technological capabilities; and “Dual Circulation,” a government approach to reorienting the country’s economy by prioritizing domestic consumption, have been highly publicized. In addition, for years China’s leadership has been emphasizing its belief in “Common Prosperity,” characterized by commitments from Chinese leadership to reduce income inequality and promote people-centered development. In economic terms, all these efforts, and others, define what the Chinese Communist Party describes as China’s socialist market economy.
Beyond slowing growth, other constraints that many economists are watching, include China’s shrinking workforce, stubbornly low consumer confidence and high levels of local government debt that provide stiff headwinds to renewed growth.
Amidst the challenges, China has made investing in innovation and technology its priority. Whether it is artificial intelligence, renewable energy or biotechnology, government-backed initiatives to reduce reliance on foreign technology are expected to intensify. Not to mention China’s overwhelming focus on leading the world in implementing and realizing a green economy. In alignment with its carbon neutrality goals set for 2060, the Year of the Snake will see China invest aggressively in green technologies and renewable energy. Its leadership in the production and rollout of electric vehicles is just one example of China’s ability to execute in this area.
Overall, China in the Year of the Snake is expected to slither along as it implements its strategies and plans and navigates obstacles. For Page Society members, understanding these initiatives is the first step in being able to establish mutually beneficial relationships.
China’s leadership recognizes a growing economy, technological leadership, and an improved environment help maintain social stability that is highly prized by the Chinese leadership. Yet, these are not the only factors. China is rapidly aging, which is putting great pressure on the social security and healthcare systems. In the current Year of the Dragon, the world witnessed a complete reversal of China’s childbirth policy environment, and today generous subsidies are now being provided to encourage Chinese citizens to go forth and multiply.
Mass urbanization has also resulted in increased pressure on affordable housing and gainful employment for the younger generation. A focus on vocational training is underway to make sure China’s next generation is equipped with the right skills for the future.
For Page members operating in China during the Year of the Snake, finding ways to help China solve its many social challenges makes up important ingredients in a recipe for success in navigating the complex China environment.
Despite the many steps it takes to insulate itself from global challenges, the Chinese leadership’s careful stewardship of critical global relationships will be paramount for a successful year.
Arguably the US-China relationship is the most consequential in the world today, fraught with tensions over trade, Taiwan and technological competition, to name a few. Many experts are optimistic, feeling the relationship has deteriorated so far that a fresh start may be welcome. Yet, President Trump’s selections for many important cabinet positions are extremely hawkish on China. And then there is Elon Musk, Donald Trump’s choice to co-lead the newly formed United States Department of Government Efficiency.
According to a January 14, 2025, Axios article, Musk: Beijing’s Acceptable Ally, "Musk could be the good cop with China, while Trump is the bad cop," University of Michigan business professor Erik Gordon tells Axios. "And Musk has every reason to play that role because Musk has a big stake in good relations with China."
Other relationships to watch are how China engages with European nations. China’s support of Russia has created tension throughout Europe. Trade relationships and climate cooperation are two areas in the spotlight in China’s engagement in Europe. China is a major trading partner with many European nations, and with the threat of Trump imposed tariffs on imports to the US, disrupting these relationships poses a dilemma for vulnerable economies.
And then there is the Global South, where the breadth and depth of China’s relationships could become even more important economically and politically depending on US postering in the coming year.
Regional diplomacy throughout the Asia Pacific region also warrants attention. China’s relationships with neighbors like Japan, South Korea, and the ASEAN countries could be tested by maritime disputes and competition for influence. Yet, the Year of the Snake could also see renewed efforts to bring this region together to resolve conflicts depending on how US diplomatic efforts evolve.
China’s Belt & Road Initiative (BRI), its plan to create trade routes and infrastructure that connect Asia, Africa and Europe, has experienced its share of problems since its inception, but it is still a core economic and diplomatic strategy of the Chinese leadership. The Year of the Snake will see continued execution of this strategy, with a focus on prioritizing green infrastructure, renewable energy and low-carbon development across participating countries along key trade routes, aiming to reduce carbon emissions and promote biodiversity protection while fostering economic growth.
What can Page members do amid the global and regional challenges China is facing throughout the world? “Ensure engagement and dialogue continue towards collaboration and to prevent contention,” advised Presnick.In the Year of the Snake, China’s Page membership will continue to embrace the Page Principles to navigate the road ahead. Tell the truth, prove it with action, listen to stakeholders and manage for tomorrow, these principles could be the best antidotes for any potential risks presented by the Year of the Snake.
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